Is it John Cornyn’s moment to lead the U.S. Senate?

Sign up for the We the Texans newsletter to receive twice-monthly updates on our year-long initiative dedicated to boosting civic engagement and chronicling how democracy is experienced in Texas.

---

WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. John Cornyn has never lost an election.

On Wednesday, he’ll see if he can continue his streak, cashing in decades of political capital as he runs to become the next Senate majority leader to replace Mitch McConnell, who’s held led the chamber’s Republicans for 17 years.

It’ll be the highest office Cornyn has ever run for, but no Texans will cast a ballot — save for himself and Texas’ junior senator, Ted Cruz. Leadership is decided by the 53 Republican members of the next Senate in a secret ballot vote. The stakes were raised last week when Republicans won a majority in the Senate, making the party leader the agenda setter for the whole chamber and a core legislative partner for the incoming Trump administration.

Cornyn, a McConnell protégé who previously served as Republican whip and chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is up against the current Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota and former NRSC Chair Rick Scott of Florida. Like Cornyn, Thune is a decorous lawmaker who spent years close to McConnell and is well regarded throughout the conference. Scott represents a newer, more right-wing generation of the Republican conference who has openly butt heads with McConnell and appeals to the MAGA wing of the party.

Cornyn has for years signaled his desire to succeed McConnell, the longest serving party leader in Senate history. As whip, Cornyn was McConnell’s No. 2 and kept the conference on board with the leadership’s agenda by addressing each senator’s individual needs and interests. He helped elect several current senators while leading the NRSC, the party’s Senate campaign arm. He has actively campaigned and fundraised on behalf of Republicans this election cycle, raising nearly $33 million and traveling the country to help incumbents and new candidates alike. Those ties have formed a key component in his bid for leader.

“One of the things that people do expect of the leadership is to raise money for the team. You see that with Speaker [Mike] Johnson in the House. You see that with Sen. McConnell in the Senate,” Cornyn said in September. “Demonstrating my experience and my contribution to this effort, my ability, along with my team, to do it is something people are going to want to consider when it comes to the leadership election.”

Cornyn is also running on his legislative record. He’s a member of three of the most coveted Senate committees: Judiciary, Finance and Intelligence. He has advised and advanced judicial confirmations under Republican and Democratic presidents. He often works across the aisle to get major legislation passed, including the CHIPS and Science Act to bolster the nation’s semiconductor industry and counter competition from Asia.

But Cornyn’s long tenure in the Senate has opened him to criticism from the right at home — some of it so rabid they’re actively rooting against Cornyn to win the leadership role. He was censured by the Collin County Republican Party and booed at the 2022 Texas Republican Party Convention after he drove the passage of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the first gun safety bill to pass into law in decades, which he worked on after the Uvalde school shooting. In recent days, both the Tarrant County and Dallas County Republican Parties issued statements rejecting Cornyn as a suitable Senate leader.

“The U.S. Senate needs a Majority Leader who is fully committed to conservative principles and who will champion the policies of President [Donald] Trump,” Dallas County Republican Party Allen West wrote in an open letter to Senate Republicans. “Senators John Cornyn and John Thune have consistently aligned themselves with Democrats and voted for omnibus bills that fail to serve the interests of America and its citizens.”

Both West and Tarrant County GOP Chair Bo French are two of the state’s loudest and most far-right Republican county leaders.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton ridiculed Cornyn, himself a former Texas attorney general, after McConnell announced he would be stepping down. Paxton posted on social media that Cornyn shouldn’t be Senate leader because he is “anti-Trump, anti-gun,” and will be too busy fending off challengers when he’s up for reelection in 2026.

“Republicans deserve better in their next leader and Texans deserve another conservative senator,” said Paxton, who has not ruled out running against Cornyn.

In an unusual public exchange for the senator who usually shrugs off critics, Cornyn responded: “Hard to run from prison, Ken,” in reference to Paxton’s numerous legal challenges. No Senate majority leader has lost reelection since Sen. Ernest McFarland in 1952, though Thune entered the Senate in 2005 defeating then-Democratic Minority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota.

Several other prominent members of the MAGA movement have also rallied around Scott in the days before the leadership election. Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene all threw their support behind Scott, criticizing both Cornyn and Thune for their work with McConnell, who has become a pariah among the most conservative flanks of the party.

But none of those outside voices will have a say in the leadership vote. The anonymity of the vote also allows senators to vote more candidly based on their own relationships with the candidates.

While his approval rating has dipped in recent years among Texas Republicans, Cornyn has maintained good standing with many prominent Republicans in Texas. He and Cruz have worked together repeatedly on legislation impacting the state and on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and both supported each other’s reelection efforts, though Cruz hasn’t said how he’s voting on the leadership election.

Texas Republican Party Chair Abraham George, who chaired the Collin County party when it censured Cornyn, met with the senator in September to coordinate efforts electing Republicans in the state.

“I truly appreciate all your efforts in what is such a pivotal election in our nation’s history,” George posted on social media after their meeting. “We are going to win Texas and we are going to win big!”

A Texan has not been a party leader in the Senate since Lyndon B. Johnson. Past leaders have used the position to benefit their home states, including Johnson, who used the perch to help secure Houston’s place as the center of the U.S. space program.

A leader in fundraising

Cornyn has been climbing the leadership ladder since his first term in Congress. He served as Republican conference vice chair from 2007 to 2009 as a first-term senator, succeeding fellow Texan Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

His influence took a leap when he was elected to serve as the NRSC chair in 2009, making him the chief fundraiser and recruiter for Senate Republicans aside from the party leader himself. It’s a grueling job, but Cornyn thrived. Paired with a 2010 Tea Party wave, Republicans managed to defend all 18 of their incumbents for the first time in 16 years and gained six more seats. Cornyn’s colleagues asked him to serve a second time for the 2012 cycle.

Texas is famously home to a host of ultra-rich Republican donors who have financed campaigns for years. Cornyn proved himself an effective fundraiser as Texas attorney general from 1999 to 2002. He was one of the first members of the Republican Attorneys General Association, hosting an Austin fundraiser in 2000 for his fellow state AGs that brought in hundreds of thousands of dollars. That scale of fundraising for attorneys general was novel at the time and attracted controversy as corporate donors gave to candidates who could be involved in their cases. Democrats created their own attorneys general fundraising organization in 2002.

His fundraising reach expanded during his time at the NRSC, building relationships with major donor pools in New York, Florida and California. He courted Wall Street in 2010 to give to Republican candidates as then-President Barack Obama pursued regulatory policy to avoid a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.

“I just don’t know how long you can expect people to contribute money to a political party whose main plank of their platform is to punish you,” Cornyn said in 2010.

During the 2022 cycle, Cornyn raised more money than any other Senate Republican, including those up for election, with the exception of McConnell himself and Scott, who was then chairing the NRSC. And unlike McConnell, whose Senate Leadership Fund is choosier in which candidates it invests in — it didn’t donated to Cruz this cycle — Cornyn gives to all of his fellow Republicans.

This cycle, Cornyn raised nearly $33 million for Republican senators and candidates, including $16 million for the NRSC. That includes over $500,000 for Cruz, who came out victorious over U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, one of the most expensive Senate races in Texas history.

Since joining the Senate, Cornyn’s fundraising total is over $414 million. He also traveled around the country campaigning and fundraising for fellow Republicans, including Cruz, Mike Rogers in Michigan, Sam Brown in Nevada, Jim Banks in Indiana, Bernie Moreno in Ohio and Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. Banks, Moreno and McCormick all won their elections.

“He’s never taken his foot off the gas,” said Brian Walsh, who served as Cornyn’s communications director at the NRSC and still is in touch with his operation. “In terms of having Republican senators and candidates down to Texas, introducing them to his network, helping them raise money … I would argue there’s very few senators who are more responsible for the Republican Senate majority than he is.”

Thune is also a prolific fundraiser and crisscrossed the country this cycle attending over 200 events for Republicans or the NRSC. He has raised over $33 million across his fundraising operation this cycle and was one of the top fundraisers for the NRSC other than the current chair, Steve Daines of Montana, NBC News reported.

The Trump factor

Cornyn has shown willingness to diverge from the current leader if the rest of the party calls for it. That includes shaking up some long standing rules.

Cornyn is vowing to move heaven and earth to get Trump’s cabinet confirmed as swiftly as possible. That includes keeping senators through the weekends to get nominees confirmed (Cornyn is a vocal critic of the short working week and frequent breaks in the Senate) and even bringing back recess appointments, which allows the president to unilaterally make appointments when the Senate is not in session.

Both Republicans and Democrats have prevented presidents from making recess appointments by sending a single senator to Washington to keep sessions going while everyone else was in their home states. But Trump called for the move to get his agenda moving — a mandate all of the candidates were willing to accept.

“No weekends, no breaks,” Cornyn posted on social media Saturday. “Democrats can cooperate in the best interest of the country, or continue the resistance, which will eventually be ground down. Take your pick.”

Cornyn has also expressed an openness to term limits for the party leader — a move McConnell opposes. And he has vowed to open up the legislative process to take in more input from the rank and file through regular Senate order, including debating legislation in committee before they hit the floor. McConnell has been criticized for leading deals with strict control of his conference, with Cruz calling him a “one-man dictator.”

“I believe our members and incoming colleagues have the talent, experience, and character needed to restore the Senate to its fundamental role in our constitutional republic, inducing the critical role of Senate committees in achieving results for the American people,” Cornyn wrote in a September letter to the conference.

Scott and Thune have made similar pitches to make the chamber more participatory. Thune is the only one of the three who has chaired a standing committee, leading the Senate Commerce Committee from 2015 to 2019.

McConnell’s clashing with the right wing of the party stretches back years. He has been hostile toward the more reactionary methods of some newer members to block legislation, and several right wing members blamed McConnell for failing to take control of the Senate in 2022.

McConnell faced his first real leadership challenge in 2022 when Scott launched a bid and secured 10 votes. Cruz, who has beefed with McConnell throughout his time in the Senate, voted for Scott.

Scott has still managed to capture the support of several members of the MAGA wing of the party. He received public endorsements from senators including Tennessee’s Bill Hagerty, Kentucky’s Rand Paul and Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville.

Cruz has not endorsed in the race. He said in February: “I suspect a number of my colleagues are interested in the job, and I look forward to seeing whom the conference selects as the next leader as we hopefully enter the majority this November.” His office did not have a further update, but he recently said on Fox News: “I want to see a majority leader who changes how the Senate operates, who democratizes it more.”

Trump has also not endorsed in the race, though Scott and his allies have requested Trump do so. Trump and McConnell shared an epicly bitter relationship, particularly after Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election escalated into an attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Both Thune and Cornyn broke from Trump after his time in office, with Cornyn saying as recently as last year that Trump could not win in a general election and that his “time has passed him by.”

But Cornyn endorsed Trump in January after Trump won in the New Hampshire primary. He later campaigned with Trump in Texas and Nevada and attended fundraisers for the Trump campaign in Laredo, San Antonio and Houston, according to a source familiar with Cornyn’s political operation.

Cornyn has also highlighted his work advancing Trump’s policy agenda when he was whip, telling Trump “I’m interested in getting the band back together again,” Cornyn said Monday on Fox News. He advanced the conference through its ultimately unsuccessful repeal attempt of the Affordable Care Act and the Trump tax cuts that have become one of Trump’s defining pieces of legislation.

Cornyn’s and Thune’s supporters are opting to be more private, with only Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri openly backing Cornyn and Sens. Mike Rounds of South Dakota, Steve Daines of Montana, Kevin Cramer and John Hoeven of North Dakota and Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma backing Thune. Hawley is a deeply conservative member who joined Cruz in objecting to the certification of the 2020 election.

Repeating a refrain he has said throughout the year, Cornyn said in September: “I don’t think these races are run in the press, so I’m not going to talk any length about it.”